[Analytics] The cost of Southeast Asia’s independence

In 2025, Southeast Asian countries risk finding themselves at the center of a standoff between two global superpowers. Will they manage to maintain a position where economic growth does not come at the cost of their independence?

With the return of Trump to power, the global community expects a new phase of economic, ideological, and possibly even military confrontation between the U.S. and China. Despite the new U.S. president’s statements about seeking to improve relations with China, his administration is, in practice, deliberately escalating existing contradictions. According to a report from U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, the greatest threat to the U.S. is China, and currently, Chinese authorities are approaching a point where they will be confident in their ability to seize Taiwan by military means.

Meanwhile, during his recent meeting with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Beijing, Xi Jinping emphasized his full support for the “strategic autonomy” of Southeast Asian countries. However, in reality, the situation is quite different – Beijing, recognizing the critical importance of maintaining its influence in the South China Sea in light of the potential military conflict over Taiwan, will use all available means to push the U.S. out of the “Global South.”

And frankly speaking, China has plenty of such tools at its disposal. Let’s take Indonesia, a country located at the crossroads of trade sea routes and one of the leading economies in the region. On the surface, everything seems favorable – in 2025, the first “two-plus-two” dialogue between China’s defense and foreign ministers and Indonesia is expected to take place. The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, built with Chinese investment as part of the “Belt and Road Initiative,” has set a record for passenger traffic (5.79 million in 2024). Massive investments are flowing into Indonesia’s economy through the Morowali Industrial Park on Sulawesi Island, built and controlled by the Chinese metallurgical giant Tsingshan Holding Group Co. Finally, China’s cultural influence on Indonesian society is evident, as Chinese media products are incredibly popular, and Chinese companies Huawei and Tencent have firmly established themselves in the country’s telecommunications sector.

Sounds promising, right? But in reality, the calm waters of Chinese diplomacy could quickly turn into a torrent that sweeps away Indonesia’s independence. For example, in light of the strengthening military cooperation, Beijing clearly does not intend to abandon its territorial claims on the Natuna Islands, nor its plans for military bases and the creation of artificial islands near the waters of neighboring countries. The innovative railway, which has already become one of Indonesia’s main transport arteries, could end up in China’s hands if Indonesia fails to pay its loans, much like what happened with the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka. And China’s nickel mines on Sulawesi are increasingly appearing in the news – but not because of economic breakthroughs, but due to repeated industrial accidents, each time resulting in the deaths of dozens of people, not to mention the proven severe damage to the local ecosystem.

And it’s unlikely that the people of Indonesia will learn about these troubling facts from the internet, which is dominated by Chinese media giants.

All of this suggests that Southeast Asian countries need to be prepared to defend their independence this year. However, there are means to do so. In such conditions, diversifying foreign economic relations, carefully evaluating Chinese investments with the involvement of international consulting firms, and developing cooperation with non-regional players (facilitated by Indonesia’s membership in BRICS) could be key to maintaining a stable political course that primarily serves their own developmental interests.