Modi govt policies a geopolitical risk in tipping point 2020: Eurasia Group

NEW DELHI, Jan 10, 2020, India Today. An international consulting group that works with investors and business leaders has named the Narendra Modi government’s “controversial social policies” in a list of geopolitical risks in 2020 — a “tipping point” year, it says, India Today reported.

Led by political scientist Ian Bremmer, The Eurasia Group pointed to scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, the Supreme Court-monitored implemention of a citizens register in Assam and the 2019 amendment to the Citizenship Act before predicting an increase in “sectarian and religious conflict”.

Ongoing protests against the amended Citizenship Act and the idea of a pan-India citizens register (NRC) — the government publicly floated the idea before backtracking recently — has been joined by backlash against incidents college campuses — one example being the horrific rampage carried out by masked goons at the JNU campus last weekend.

The Eurasia Group predicts that the Modi government’s “focus on the social agenda” will hurt foreign policy.

It specifically pointed out a risk to India-US ties: “Some members of the US Congress are concerned with India’s policies generally, and in particular with its plans to buy the S-400 missile defense system from Russia.”

The US Congress (the national legislature), it said, “could impose sanctions. At the least, the anti-missile system purchase will impede further sales of US military equipment to India, the strongest plank of the bilateral relationship.”

The Eurasia Group also said the empowerment of the RSS, the ideological parent of the BJP, gives Prime Minister Narendra Modi “less room to maneuver on structural reforms, just as the economy is starting to sputter.”

The government is expected to present the Union Budget on February 1.

“A weakened economy will in turn feed further economic nationalism and protectionism, weighing on India’s troubled course in 2020,” the Eurasia Group said.

With inputs from Geeta Mohan