[Analytics] Kuomintang’s fight goes far beyond Han Kuo-yu’s presidential bid in Taiwan

Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen is hot favourite for re-election but the race is still very much on for control of the island’s legislature, analysts say. Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has a big majority in parliament but Han’s popularity could help the KMT close the gap. Sarah Zheng specially for the South China Morning Post.

Han Kuo-yu may be trailing in the polls, but the Kuomintang’s candidate for Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan is not giving up the ghost just yet.

Despite his and the KMT’s sweeping victories in the regional elections in November 2018, Han has failed to build on that support and is widely expected to lose out to Tsai Ing-wen from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – who is seeking a second term as president – when the self-ruled island goes to the polls.

But the possibility of defeat was far from the thoughts of the tens of thousands of Han supporters who thronged Ketagalan Boulevard outside the presidential office in Taipei on Thursday evening.

“Hello, our president!” they roared as Han, the incumbent mayor of Kaoshiung, took to the stage to face a sea of fans and flags of the Republic of China, the official name for Taiwan.

While Tsai is the favourite in the leadership contest, Saturday’s polls will also decide the composition of Taiwan’s legislature, and it is in that race that the hopes of the mainland-friendly KMT are still very much alive.

Of the 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, the island’s parliament, the DPP currently has 68 and the KMT 35.

More than 19.3 million Taiwanese are eligible to vote and Tsai and Han have been working hard in the final days of campaigning to win as much support as they can.

While analysts are expecting a big win for Tsai in the presidential poll – influenced by factors such as disunity in the KMT, Han’s personal gaffes and Tsai’s strong stance against Beijing following months of anti-government protests in Hong Kong – there is less certainty about the outcome of the legislative poll and whether the DPP can hold on to its majority in the house.

Taiwan’s parliament is made up of 73 district seats, 34 “at-large” seats which are filled from party lists, and six reserved for indigenous Taiwanese. A total of 650 candidates will contest Saturday’s poll, of whom 412 are running for district seats, 217 for at-large seats and 21 for the indigenous Taiwanese.

Besides making a presidential pick, voters are allowed to cast one ballot in each of the three groups.
The allocation of the at-large seats is determined by the number of votes cast for each party, which must also receive at least 5 per cent of the vote to qualify. The DPP is fielding 102 candidates on Saturday, and the KMT 107.

Both leaders have painted the vote as bordering on existential. Tsai’s campaign has focused on the need to safeguard Taiwan’s national sovereignty and democracy in the face of increasing threats from Beijing, while Han and his team have stressed the importance of revitalising the economy by rooting out corruption and revitalising the island’s relationship with Beijing, which froze soon after Tsai took over as president.

Observers say that although Tsai is on course to retain the leadership, if the KMT wins the 57 seats needed for a majority in the legislature, it will make it difficult for her to push through her policies.

Lai I-Chung, president of the Prospect Foundation, a Taiwanese think tank, said that the “issue people are concerned about right now” is which party would win a majority.

“Usually the Taiwan election has the effect of the so-called mother hen taking care of the smaller chickens, so a strong presidential candidate will be able to help swing the [legislative] candidates,” he said.

“[But in] the KMT right now, the presidential candidate is [going] against the wind, so that will make it difficult.”

Chen Kuang-hui, a professor of political science at National Chung Cheng University, said at a forum organised by Taiwan’s foreign ministry on Thursday that despite Han’s and the KMT’s best efforts, Tsai looked to have an unassailable lead.

“Both sides are working very hard to mobilise their voters … especially the DPP which is concerned about their young voters because if they don’t cast their votes, it is possible that Han will have more of a share in the final results,” he said.

“But overall, the gap between Tsai and Han is quite wide.”

On Ketagalan Boulevard on Thursday, legal worker Steve Shih was among those who had turned out to support Han.

“I am here to add to Han’s numbers and show Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP the Taiwanese people’s true will,” the 30-year-old said.

“We support Han Kuo-yu not because we want to support the Chinese Communist Party but to support ourselves and to bring down the DPP, this dictatorial regime.”

Standing on the sidelines of the rally was Tsai supporter Chen Ting-an, a 22-year-old student.

She said the most important issues for her were same-sex marriage and Tsai’s strong response to threats from Beijing.

“Fundamentally, all of us just want Taiwan to be better, but it’s just that everyone sees things differently and we see different directions and methods for Taiwan’s future,” she said.

“My personal wish is that more people in Taiwan can embrace our Taiwanese identity. For younger people, it is more natural for us to recognise Taiwan as a country … it is natural that we think we are Taiwanese and grew up here, and that Taiwan’s history has absolutely no relation to mainland China.”

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Sarah Zheng joined the Post as a reporter in 2016. She graduated from Tufts University with a degree in international relations and film and media studies. She reports on China’s foreign policy.