[Analytics] Breaking down Kim Jong-un’s New Year commitments

SEOUL, Jan 4, 2019, Hankyoreh. Although North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made clear his commitment to complete denuclearization and to holding a second summit with US President Donald Trump in his New Year’s address on Jan. 1, there are several points about which further interpretation is necessary. These are the points that North Korea and the US will focus on during future negotiations about denuclearization and normalizing relations, reported the Hankyoreh.

“No longer making nuclear weapons”

In his New Year’s address, Kim emphasized, “Accordingly, we declared at home and abroad that we would neither make and test nuclear weapons any longer nor use and proliferate them, and we have taken various practical measures.” Among these “four nos” (the testing, production, use and proliferation of nuclear weapons), halting the production of nuclear weapons is something that North Korea has not hitherto announced. Though Kim’s address represented this as taking place in the past, it’s unclear when or how production was halted.

Given the context of the overall New Year’s speech, the prevailing view is that Kim intended this section to make his commitment to denuclearization more concrete. “This was a more forward-looking and proactive expression of his commitment to complete denuclearization,” said South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on Jan. 1. In a statement released on Jan. 2, the Korea Institute for National Unification interpreted this passage as “an important political speech act that increases confidence in the commitment and implementation of denuclearization” and concluded that North Korea had “spelled out the details of measures toward a preemptive nuclear freeze by elucidating its position on the four nos.”

The principle of the “four nos” was included in the joint declaration for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula issued by South and North Korea in 1992, but unlike that declaration, Kim’s New Year’s address made no mention of its facilities used for nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment. Experts believe that North Korea is saving these two types of facilities for the negotiations. This would also include dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility, an offer made by North Korea in the Pyongyang Joint Declaration in Sept. 2018, and it’s expected to be a major point of contention in the North Korea-US negotiations.

N. Korea’s push for peaceful use of nuclear energy

Another intriguing aspect of Kim’s address was his suggestion that “nuclear power generation” could be a way of resolving North Korea’s power shortage. While arguing, “We should direct primary efforts to relieving the shortage of electricity to make a breakthrough in revitalizing the national economy,” Kim mentioned the need to “create a capacity for generating tidal, wind and atomic power under a far-reaching plan.”

North Korea’s longstanding argument is that the peaceful use of nuclear energy is a legitimate right of any sovereign state. And in principle, this is a right that North Korea would be guaranteed if it reinstates the safety measures required by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But the US has been reluctant to grant North Korea access to the enriched uranium that fuels light-water reactors because of concerns that it could be diverted to military purposes.

This issue was also the sticking point in the negotiations for the Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks that was released on Sept. 19, 2005. In the final statement, the members of the talks “agreed to discuss the issue of providing light-water reactors to North Korea at the appropriate time.” This basically recognized North Korea’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Kim’s mention of “atomic power generation,” therefore, can be taken as a strategic move, announcing his intention to secure that right in future denuclearization talks with the US.

“That will definitely be on the negotiating table,” predicted a diplomatic source who is familiar with North Korea-US relations.

North Korea states it will find “new way” if sanctions persist

The part of Kim’s New Year’s address that received the most attention was his muted warning that North Korea would seek a “new way” if the US maintains its unilateral policy of sanctions and pressure.

While some interpreted this as North Korea indicating that it would return to the “two-track” line of building nuclear weapons alongside the economy, experts stressed that a “new way” would not be a return to the past.

“Since the New Year’s address declared the victory of the two-track line while emphasizing the third plenary session of the seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea on Apr. 20, 2018, a return to the two-track line is impossible,” said Koo Kab-woo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

The Institute for National Security Strategy concluded that this “reflected Kim Jong-un’s dilemma over whether to choose a hard or moderate line,” while the Korea Institute for National Unification assessed it as being a “rhetorical line in the sand.”

It’s possible to conclude that Kim didn’t specify what this “new way” would be since his remark represented a request for an attitude change from the US. On the other hand, some see the address’ emphasis on a “self-sufficient economy” and “self-reliance” as hinting at a contingency plan in the event that the US maintains or toughens its sanctions.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter