Canceling Tokyo Olympics would lower Japan GDP growth by 1.4 per cent: Estimate

People wearing protective face masks are seen in front of the Olympic rings at the waterfront area at Odaiba Marine Park in Tokyo, Japan, on Feb 27, 2020. PHOTO: REUTERS. Sketched by the Pan Pacific Agency.

TOKYO, Mar 8, 2020, Kyodo. If the ongoing spread of the new coronavirus forces Japan to cancel the Tokyo Olympics, it would reduce the country’s annual gross domestic product growth by 1.4 percent, according to an estimate by a securities firm, Kyodo News reported.

In a report released Friday, SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. projects that the Tokyo Games would create demand through spectator consumption and the staging of sporting events totaling 670 billion yen ($6.4 billion) and the cancellation of the Olympics would sap Japan’s GDP by about 7.8 trillion yen.

The company believes that the Olympics will be canceled if the spread of the deadly virus continues until July. Under that scenario, corporate revenues would fall 24.4 percent in 2020, compared with last year.

On the other hand, the report also presented a scenario under which the spread of the coronavirus ends in April, with the Olympics being held as scheduled and the economic fallout from the virus limited to a 0.9 percent drop in GDP growth.

Even with this optimistic view, corporate revenues would likely decline by 14.9 percent due to such factors as a plunge in the number of tourists and dampened domestic consumption.

The Tokyo Games are scheduled to take place between July 24 and Aug. 9.

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