Japan faces hard choices in Mideast as Iran-US tensions spike after Soleimani killing

TOKYO, Jan 7, 2020, The Mainichi. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was scheduled to visit a number of Middle Eastern countries in mid-January, and he stated at a Jan. 6 news conference that the planned deployment of Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) assets to the region would go ahead as scheduled. However, all this is in doubt after the United States’ targeted killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a Jan. 3 drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq, The Mainichi reported.

Storm clouds are gathering over the entire region, with the threat of conflict growing increasingly palpable. One senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official described the Middle East today as “saturated with gas, and even the slightest spark of static electricity could cause the whole thing to explode.”

The Japanese government has been calling on both Tehran and Washington to exercise restraint, but is also no longer certain if Abe will be making his Mideast tour. Tokyo will watch developments closely before deciding whether to proceed. Meanwhile, though Abe has insisted the MSDF deployment is still on-track, any significant escalation in the region would surely impact the force’s activities.

As a U.S. ally and a longtime friend to Tehran, Japan has been trying to get both sides to tamp down tensions. As recently as late December 2019, Prime Minister Abe hosted Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, and the two discussed stabilizing conditions in the Middle East. One source close to the Japanese government told the Mainichi Shimbun, “Japan will continue dialogue with both countries (Iran and the U.S.) while discussing what can be done with other related nations.”

Tokyo will be faced with some difficult decisions should the Mideast situation deteriorate. The core of the legal justification for the MSDF deployments to the region is that Japanese personnel will be engaged in the “surveys or research” set out under the Act for Establishment of the Ministry of Defense. The forces are banned from using their weapons except in clear-cut cases of self-defense or responses to emergency situations.

On the other hand, if there is an attack on a Japanese-flagged vessel or some similar incident, then nearby MSDF assets could be issued a “maritime policing action” order that would allow the them to exercise police authority using weapons. MSDF personnel could be deployed to the Middle East on a maritime policing mission if approved by the Cabinet in advance. However, no such move is currently being considered, according to a source close to the government.

Furthermore, even if a police action order is issued, the MSDF would only be permitted to act to protect ships flying Japanese flags.

“If there was a U.S.-related vessel being attacked nearby MSDF assets, we couldn’t just stand by and let it happen,” a senior MSDF officer told the Mainichi. “It would put our forces in a very difficult position.”

An MSDF patrol aircraft is set to start intelligence collecting operations in the Middle East in January, followed by an escort vessel in February. Japan is also planning to send staff liaisons to the U.S.’s regional naval headquarters in the small Persian Gulf state Bahrain for information-sharing.

(Japanese original by Issei Suzuki, Foreign News Department, and Yusuke Tanabe, Political News Department)