[Analytics] What Joe Biden win means for India-China relations

Joe Biden is nearing 270 electoral votes. Photo: CNN. Sketched by the Pan Pacific Agency.

With Joe Biden winning the US presidential election, it is expected that stability will replace unpredictability in the US policy. How this transition of power in the US may influence India-China relations, here’s an account. Prabhash K Dutta specially for the India Today.

Donald Trump Junior, the son of outgoing US President Donald Trump, in October claimed if Democrat nominee Joe Biden won the US presidential election, it would be “not good” for India because he would be “soft on China”.

The statement came at the height of the campaign for the US presidential polls soliciting the votes of Indian-Americans. Now, Joe Biden is the President-elect of the US with Indian-American Kamala Harris as his vice-president.

Speculation is being made about how the US, under Joe Biden, may influence India-China relations besides its bilateral ties with the two countries. There are ample indications to give an idea how Joe Biden may approach India, China individually, and influence India-China bilateral ties.

But first recall what Donald Trump Jr said. “We have to understand the threat of China and no one knows that probably better than Indian-Americans,” in New York at his book promotion event, where he targeted Hunter Biden, the son of Joe Biden.

Trump Jr said, “You think the Chinese gave Hunter Biden $1.5 billionbecause he was a great businessman or because they knew the Bidens could be bought, and therefore soft on ChinaTherefore, bad for India.”

So, will Biden be soft on China?

There aren’t such indications in his or Democratic Party’s China policy outlook. Joe Biden has not assumed the office and it is still more than two months away before he could officially act on, against or for China. But going by his description of China and its President Xi Jinping in the recent past, China is not going to have a “soft” US president in Joe Biden.

Nearly a week after Trump Jr targeted Biden junior, Joe Biden slammed Donald Trump calling his “weak and chaotic with China” while promising to “lead an effective strategy to mobilise a truly international effort to pressure, isolate and punish China”

During the race for Democratic presidential nomination in February this year, Joe Biden had launched a personal attack on Xi Jinping.

“This [Xi Jinping] is a guy who is a thug,” Biden had said. The comment had come in the backdrop of Covid-19 pandemic taking mammoth global proportions and Chinese secrecy about it.

This comment was in sharp contrast to how Biden had described Xi Jinping in 2012, when Barack Obama was the US president and Xi Jinping was about to take over as Chinese supreme leader. Biden had hosted Xi on his US visit and praised him saying, “This is a guy who is prepared to show another [open and friendly] side of the Chinese leadership.”

However, during the Obama years itself, the Democrats had changed their view about Xi Jinping and his China. And, it was the Obama administration that had begun hardening of the US stance over China. Trump just followed it up after failed attempts to engage with Xi Jinping. What Trump did differently was shooting from the hip on social media.

Will it be bad for India?

Joe Biden has been critical of the Narendra Modi government’s Kashmir policy measures and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Many in India too, including all the Opposition parties, are critical of policy decisions on these and several other issues. The Opposition can force a say in India’s internal policy matters but a US president may not have that leverage on an Indian government.

Apart from that, there is not much that looks to put Joe Biden as somebody opposed to India’s policies. Joe Biden was the vice-president of the US under Barack Obama and was instrumental in the bonhomie seen between Obama and PM Modi back then.

The US-India strategic ties had strengthened. It had largely kept China in check. Chinese expansionism grew almost in the same measure as Trump’s emphasis on America First policy. It was only towards the end of his tenure that Donald Trump grew serious about a multi-lateral approach to counter Chinese assertion in Asia-Pacific region.

The Quadrilateral Coalition or the Quad that has recently been rejuvenated is likely to take better shape under Joe Biden. Additionally, Joe Biden has been openly critical of China’s Xinjiang policy of suppression of Uighyr Muslims. This augurs well for India particularly when China is trying to dictate terms along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, where military standoff is going for six months.

How good can Biden be for India?

With Biden raising the issue of Uighyr Muslims, it is likely to expose Pakistan which has been trying to build a narrative that it is the champion of Muslims across the world while painting India as an “anti-Muslim” country. This puts pressure on China and Pakistan, and works in favour of India.

On Pakistan and export of terror from that country to India, Biden has opened his card. But Trump with his verbal volleys at times stonewalled Pakistan or offered mediation on Kashmir. Both are not good for India. Under the previous Democrat administration, India had found a partner in the US to nuance its Pakistan policy. Biden is likely to revert to the same “stable” channel between India and Pakistan.

Biden is likely to ease H-1B visa regime, tightened by Trump in recent years. Indians are among the major beneficiaries of the H-1B visa scheme of the US. In trade, Trump was determined to make it inward for the US making it difficult for Indian exporters to access the American market. Biden has favoured deeper trade ties with India. He is also likely to bring the US back to the WTO.

Another major issue, where Biden stands on the same side as India, is the climate change. Trump had withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on climate change blaming India and China for growing global warming. Biden has been vocal about the need to make the fight against climate change stronger.

For rhetoric, Biden has a strong India connection. His vice president Kamala Harris has roots in India. And, now reports say Biden “discovered” his own centuries-old India connection.

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